Every year, as soon as the lifts stop spinning, it begins. A local news station runs a segment on La Niña. Someone shares a meme about climate change and the future of ski resorts on social media. A ski forum thread titled "Is this going to be a bad snow year??" spirals into 300 replies of speculation and doom. It’s a fair ask, especially after a winter that may have felt unpredictable or just not quite long enough.
But if you’ve spent enough time in the mountains, you know that ski seasons are rarely as simple as “good” or “bad.” And that some of the best days don’t come from perfect forecasts, but knowing where to go. In this guide, we’re breaking down what those big weather terms actually mean, what early predictions are telling us about the 2026/27 ski season, and why, no matter what the outlook says, it’s still worth planning ahead for next winter.
El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of a natural climate pattern called ENSO, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a combination of sea surface temperature and atmospheric air pressure across the Pacific Ocean. Every two to seven years, a broad band of tropical Pacific water swings between warmer-than-average (El Niño) and cooler-than-average (La Niña), thanks to the changing trade winds. That temperature shift nudges the jet stream north or south, and the jet stream is what determines whether your favorite resort gets buried or bypassed.
El Niño tends to push the storm track south. That's generally good news for California's Sierra Nevada — Mammoth, Tahoe, June Mountain — and for the Southwest and East Coast. It's less exciting news for the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, which can end up warmer and drier than they'd like.
La Niña flips it. The jet stream rides higher, and the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies — Whistler, Big Sky, Jackson Hole, Banff — tend to load up. Meanwhile, California and the southern Rockies become more of a gamble.
The key takeaway here is that these patterns influence the odds, but they don't set the outcome in stone. Local weather, elevation, storm tracks and timing all play huge roles. Virtually every major resort has seen record-breaking seasons that defy their statistical ENSO expectations. Mammoth had one of its greatest seasons ever during a La Niña year. Big Sky has been skunked in what should have been ideal La Niña winters. The atmosphere has a short memory and zero respect for historical averages.
Read More: Is La Niña or El Niño Better for Snow?
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the La Niña conditions that influenced the 2025/26 season are now coming to an end, and weather patterns are pointing towards a strong El Niño season to come. As of May 14, 2026, NOAA forecasts a 82% chance of El Niño developing by July 2026, with a 96% chance of conditions persisting through February 2027.
There’s also a roughly 1-in-4 chance of a strong El Niño event, depending on whether westerly wind anomalies continue across the equatorial Pacific through the Northern Hemisphere summer. The coming months will be key in confirming how strongly this pattern takes hold. If that plays out, history says: better odds for California and the southern U.S., bad news for the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. In stronger El Niño events, those regional patterns can become even more pronounced.
Two things worth keeping in mind, though. First, El Niño forecasts made in May for a winter ski season are educated guesses, not certainties. A lot can change between now and opening day. Second, climate change adds another layer to the story. Across much of North America, average snowfall has shown a gradual decline over time, even as year-to-year variability increases. That said, higher elevations have largely bucked the trend, and the East Coast just had a great winter with zero “Ice Coast” energy. Outliers happen, and they happen more than the doom forecasters want you to believe.
A warmer atmosphere can retain more moisture, so when temperatures are cold enough, that translates to heavier snowfall events. But when temperatures rise, that same moisture is more likely to fall as rain (particularly at lower and mid-mountain elevations), ultimately shaping snowpack and season quality in very different ways depending on location. All of this is to say: the outlook can give us clues on what’s to come, but the mountains always have the final say.
Instead of trying to predict the season, it’s best to start building a plan that works in multiple scenarios. Here’s what that looks like:
Read more: 10 Top Longest Vertical Drops at North American Ski Resorts
Early-purchase windows for the Epic and Ikon Passes offer the lowest prices of the season, and they close before most people start thinking about winter—yet every year, many skiers still wait too long. Lock in your pass before it’s too late.
The industry has invested billions in snowmaking, grooming technology and terrain expansion over the past two decades. Today's major resorts can open terrain in conditions that would have been unthinkable in the 1990s. Ski resorts aren’t going anywhere.
Below-average snowfall is not the same as no snow. It might mean fewer powder days, not zero powder days. The worst ski season you ski is better than the perfect season you watched from your couch because the forecast made you nervous. And when the storm cycle does hit — and it will — you'll be ready.
The best early-purchase pricing won't last. If you want the best rate on your pass and the best selection of lodging, the time to move is now, not when the first snow report drops in November. Our Mountain Travel Experts are here to help you build a trip that's flexible enough to chase conditions and strategic enough to give you the best possible odds of skiing great snow, whatever the winter brings.
TAGGED: la nina, El Nino
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